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Macro Minute: Week of December 11, 2023

So, this week I have a confession.

I am having a difficult time writing my Macro Minute and I blame it on a couple of things.

The first reason is my normal routine has been upset, along with my whole life. On November 26th, I broke my leg and had surgery on the following day. I am now part of the statistic of those who have fallen down a step and hurt themselves while carrying Christmas decorations. I have not been cleared to walk, meaning my independence has been greatly hampered. I have a wonderful wife that has not only taken care of me, but continues to keep our three boys on schedule. While I have continued to be able to work, my normal schedule and routine has changed. As a result, I have had less insights into what is going on in markets.

The second reason I’ve struggled to write this Macro Minute is that the markets have been trending positively with lower volatility. In these types of markets, it is best to just invest long and not worry about much. The major trends of the year are continuing. I would list them like this.

  • Inflation continuing to slow
  • Growth remains resilient
  • Employment is robust, if not as white hot as earlier in the year
  • Bond yields have fallen given these trends
  • The Fed is on pause and the market is pricing in rate cuts in 2024
  • Corporate earnings appear to have rebounded from the slowdown experienced earlier this year

All in all, things are going well and the futures looks ok, too. I will have new things that catch my attention next week but for now, I will recover and continue to observe.


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