Macro Minute

This birthday was a bigger deal to me than I can remember an adult birthday being. Most would wonder why. It was not a big deal in terms of celebrating and 41 is not looked at as a big milestone. To me it was big mentally because I am now older than my parents were […]

You might have heard: equity markets are currently at all-time highs as of the start of 2024. Many people fear investing when markets are at peaks, which seems counterintuitive to the “buy low, sell high” mantra. However, let’s examine history to understand how this investment strategy has fared. Meb Faber wrote about a strategy of […]

I was listening to a podcast the other day. In it a comment was made about how inflation is coming down, but prices are still elevated. I think it is important to unpack that. Inflation is the rate of change of increasing prices. If milk goes from $2.00 to $3.00, that is a 50% increase […]

We have all heard the saying “give an inch and they take a mile.”  That is exactly what has happened in the bond market. I went from bearish bond to constructive bonds, but I am now beginning to get more neutral bonds. Let me try and expound on my thinking. The bond market is influenced […]

Today, I thought I’d give a few more of my investment beliefs. You can find the first set by clicking here. Investing requires foresight. As investors we have little certainty of what will happen near term, but we have much more clarity when looking out into the distant future. Investing is made harder because it […]

As we start 2024, I want to begin by saying thank you. Thank you to all who read my rambling thoughts each week. I want to thank Jessica who proofreads these and Andrew who posts them and sends them out. I have gotten great feedback from clients and peers in the industry. I am humbled […]

It’s that time of year where every asset manager looks back and reflects. As I do that, I cannot help but comment on how frustrating this year has been. This year has had a banking collapse, a new bank lending facility created by the Federal Reserve, 75 basis points of Federal Reserve hikes, and mortgage […]

Today I have to talk about the Federal Reserve meeting last week. In not so many words, Jerome Powell signaled that they are done and are looking to cut rates three times next year. It is important to look at how markets have been acting the last month leading into this meeting and how they […]

So, this week I have a confession. I am having a difficult time writing my Macro Minute and I blame it on a couple of things. The first reason is my normal routine has been upset, along with my whole life. On November 26th, I broke my leg and had surgery on the following day. […]

Today, I want to explore something I have been thinking about for a long time.  A few weeks ago, I stumbled across this reposting by Meb Faber: And here are the original posts and a related one Benjamin had written earlier: I largely agree that the ability to invest has been solved. It has never […]