Macro Minute

I am part of a study group with fellow advisors. One of our latest discussions centered around the amount of debt in the system and what happens when liquidity goes away. The concern is like when Warren Buffet said, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” I am very […]

We have all heard that there are two certainties in this life, death and taxes. Let’s talk about the rosier of these two constants, taxes. From an investors’ perspective we want to earn the highest possible return while taking the appropriate amount of risk. The impact of taxes is One thing that is rarely talked […]

Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing at all. In investing the thing that usually pays you the most is to just sit on your investments and be patient. Buy a diversified portfolio and add to it over time. Rebalance infrequently. It is counter to most other endeavors in life. With many things in […]

Let’s address the biggest market narrative of the moment. Will unproductive Capex spending in AI infrastructure lead to the next big market bubble and bust? My answer to that is “maybe?”. Having been a late teen, early 20-year-old, but heavily invested in markets, in the aftermath of the dot com bubble, I have a recollection of […]

This quarter was a great quarter to be invested. Most asset classes were up for the quarter, led by Gold up over 17%. The asset that most people own is U.S. large cap and it was up over 8%. The tech heavy Nasdaq was up over 11%. Not to be forgotten about, international markets were […]

The one takeaway that I come away with from all the Federal Reserve Dot Plots, Summary of Economic Projections, and the Fed speech is this; monetary policy is looking to support growth over the fight of inflation for the moment. As such, market reactions should begin to price in a dovish Federal Reserve. I know […]

Today I wanted to bring you a chart from Callie Cox’s excellent newsletter. It is a chart from Chart Kid Matt.  As we are likely to begin a Federal Reserve rate cutting cycle this week, I thought it would be good to look at how the S&P 500 typically does for the year after the […]

Last week, I compared compelling arguments to be bearish and bullish on the current stock market. I also highlighted how there are always reasons to be bullish and bearish. Today, I want to highlight the best way to circumvent our emotions and stay invested through time even given heightened uncertainty.  To do this, I want […]

This week, I want to pull at some loose threads in my mind and try to flesh them. The market is always a mix of people bearish and bullish. This is how a market is made and how prices are set. At every price that a position is traded, there is someone buying and someone […]

I know that I have been AI heavy for the past few weeks, but I can’t help but comment on the article my friend, Harris Kupperman (Kuppy), wrote last week. In the previous weeks I have talked about how the technology of AI is and will continue to revolutionize the world. Kuppy does a great […]