Macro Minute

I have been listening and thinking about the AI CapEx cycle a lot lately. I am going to try and assimilate my thoughts here. There has been a mania taking place causing many market changes. First let’s talk about large cap tech. These companies grew in the aftermath of the dot.com bust. They were able to benefit from the huge CapEx cycle to build the modern internet. Then, in […]

“We are in a Bull Market, don’t waste it!!!”  Rick Rule  A lot of the time markets are simple. Human nature complicates things. We overthink and feel the need to do something. Right now, as I examine the investing world, I see bull markets all over the place. International markets, commodities, and U.S. markets are all expanding. This is emblematic […]

When I think of being an investor, I think about being wise with my time, talent, and money. I would argue that we are all investors, whether we are aware of it or not. Today I want to break down these different elements of investing and give personal experiences that have helped shape me into the investor/person that I […]

Today I want to touch briefly of a very triggering topic in the investing world, and that is bubbles. First off, what even is a bubble? I would argue that a bubble is when the valuation is not supported by long-term fundamentals. In the late 1990’s Alan Greenspan used the term “irrational exuberance”, when describing the price action […]

Let’s talk about the market drop on Friday. There are many culminating catalysts for it. We had Broadcom earnings beat expectations, but consensus was expecting higher guidance on AI demand. This sparked a selloff in all chip stocks, especially in the South Korean Kospi, that is at elevated levels because of legislative changes encouraging local citizens’ participation in […]

When I look through my email inbox every day, I see lots of smart people saying lots of different things. Most of these people get paid to sell a product or service, in other words, they are incentivized to say something and have an opinion at all times. In my observation this leads to bad behavioral […]

It has been a little while since I have written anything. Part of this is because I have been having some joint pain that has made writing difficult, but the largest part is that markets have been a bit myopic. All that matters right now is the price of oil and the straits of Hormuz. If oil goes […]

I have written a couple of things that I have decided to scrap. I was writing about markets and the conflict with Iran. Not that I don’t believe in what I wrote, just the situation is highly uncertain and rife with misinformation. Everyone has a take and a spin on either what is happening, what is going […]

“As goes January, so goes the year.”  The so-called January Barometer or January Effect is a heuristic that is used by market participants to gauge how the rest of the year will be based off the stock market returns in January. This might sound silly, but it has a solid track record of over 80% […]

“My partner Charlie says there is only three ways a smart person can go broke: liquor, ladies and leverage, now the truth is — the first two he just added because they started with L — it’s leverage.” – Warren Buffet  You have heard me warn of leverage several times in the past. I could […]