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Macro Minute: Week of October 2, 2023

I came across this blog post from Ben Carlson the other day.  In it, he gives 24 things that he believes about investing.  I thought I would highlight a few of my favorites, and I may do a Macro Minute later stating some of my own investing beliefs.

For the vast majority of us, our biggest advantage is to endure.  I know a few people that can really nail the market turns, and even then, they tend to nimbly scalp returns and then get out.  Unless you are going to put in the time to really analyze companies, sector dynamics, and global macro, it is hard to get the timing of returns right. 

I whole heartedly believe this.  It is much more important to have a multiyear plan to stick to and ignore the short-term gyrations.  Investing is one of the few disciplines that the longer into the future you look the more clarity you gain.  For example, if you ask me if the stock market is going to be higher in the next 9 months, I would have little certainty on it.  But if you were to ask me if I thought it would be higher in the next 10 years, history certainly dictates that it would. 

Many times, in investing, the highest returning strategy does not matter.  Those strategies tend to be the strategies that no sane person could hold through time.  The best investments tend to be the ones that has a high enough return that works for your financial plan without making you lose sleep at night.  The problem we as humans run into is that we start looking around and comparing to others.  We fail to take into account their personal situation or risk tolerance. 

This was a fun read and I recommend you looking through his other 21 beliefs if you have the time. 


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