Macro Minute

We have all heard the saying “give an inch and they take a mile.”  That is exactly what has happened in the bond market. I went from bearish bond to constructive bonds, but I am now beginning to get more neutral bonds. Let me try and expound on my thinking. The bond market is influenced […]

Today, I thought I’d give a few more of my investment beliefs. You can find the first set by clicking here. Investing requires foresight. As investors we have little certainty of what will happen near term, but we have much more clarity when looking out into the distant future. Investing is made harder because it […]

As we start 2024, I want to begin by saying thank you. Thank you to all who read my rambling thoughts each week. I want to thank Jessica who proofreads these and Andrew who posts them and sends them out. I have gotten great feedback from clients and peers in the industry. I am humbled […]

It’s that time of year where every asset manager looks back and reflects. As I do that, I cannot help but comment on how frustrating this year has been. This year has had a banking collapse, a new bank lending facility created by the Federal Reserve, 75 basis points of Federal Reserve hikes, and mortgage […]

Today I have to talk about the Federal Reserve meeting last week. In not so many words, Jerome Powell signaled that they are done and are looking to cut rates three times next year. It is important to look at how markets have been acting the last month leading into this meeting and how they […]

So, this week I have a confession. I am having a difficult time writing my Macro Minute and I blame it on a couple of things. The first reason is my normal routine has been upset, along with my whole life. On November 26th, I broke my leg and had surgery on the following day. […]

Today, I want to explore something I have been thinking about for a long time.  A few weeks ago, I stumbled across this reposting by Meb Faber: And here are the original posts and a related one Benjamin had written earlier: I largely agree that the ability to invest has been solved. It has never […]

Readers who missed the first installment in my inflation series can find it here. In this piece, I want to move from what inflation is and why it is, to what it means from a saving and investment perspective. To start, let’s choose a method of measurement for inflation. I am going to use the […]

Today, I want to talk about something non-markets again. This week is Thanksgiving and I know that the holiday season can be tough for people. For that matter, life can be very difficult all together sometimes. I also know that at 40 I do not have life figured out, but I have lived an interesting […]

Today, I want to cover a view I hold that can be different than a lot of people. That is a view that this moment is all we have and is what matters. I want to talk about a few events that have happened personally to help form this belief. But before that, let me […]