Macro Minute

Today, I am going to attempt to deconstruct the tariff announcement on April 2nd. As a baseline, I want to reiterate my tariff Macro Minute that I wrote on March 24th. Tariffs result in both higher costs for producers and lower quantities demanded at those higher prices by consumers. This is a less optimum output […]

Today’s post is a personal one that I hope adds some insight into several personality traits that I have learned to harness to help me be a more consistent and disciplined investor. To begin with I have come to recognize that I am dyslexic. As my youngest son was diagnosed with dyslexia, I realized that […]

I feel like I need to tackle a misconception that I am seeing everywhere. That is that tariffs are inflationary. On the surface that sounds correct, but let’s think through how this affects prices. I am going to fall back on my economic education here for a minute so bear with me as I draw […]

There is one graphic that keeps sticking with me. This version is from Ritholtz Wealth Management.  This Macro Minute is a longer framework piece to describe how we got to where we are in capital markets and where I think we are going.  To begin with, I want to bring up the term fungibility. In […]

Last week, I covered the slowing economic data coming out. Today, I would like to continue looking at economic data by covering the employment situation and also give a peak into what’s happening abroad.  As a reminder to us all, employment is a Federal Reserve mandate because it is crucial to economic growth and recession […]

We are seeing a fairly dramatic slowing in the economy. Some of this is uncertainty that is being caused by policy changes and businesses attempting to front run those policies. For example, the GDP nowcast updated to -1.5% on February 28th from 2.3% on February 19th. The dramatic change is caused by a swelling trade […]

“Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world.”  Archimedes  Today I want to talk about leverage. Leverage is the reason we have a lot of the volatile market moves these days. My favorite thought around this is the quote from Warren Buffet about […]

Today I want to cover a recent book that I have picked up. Two Thoughts: A Timeless Collection of Infinite Wisdom by Jim O’Shaughnessy with Vatsal Kaushik. This is a collection of quotes that are intended to facilitate thought. There are classics that most know like Kahlil Gibran who said “If you love somebody, let […]

Today, I want to cover a topic that is a point of consternation for many – the government. Before I start, I feel the need to reiterate a point that I have said before. As investors, we must be able to look at things with indifference or apathy when it comes to politics. I believe […]

DeepSeek – What is it and what it means?  Today, I am going to give my thoughts on DeepSeek and what it could mean for markets. DeepSeek is an open-source large language model comparable to ChatGPT. Basically, it is a new AI (Artificial Intelligence) model out of China. I am no AI expert and do […]