Macro Minute: Week of May 4, 2026

It has been a little while since I have written anything. Part of this is because I have been having some joint pain that has made writing difficult, but the largest part is that markets have been a bit myopic. All that matters right now is the price of oil and the straits of Hormuz. If oil goes higher, it drags on global growth. If the strait opens, we will see how fast supply can return. What we do know is that this is the second year in a row where there is some type of geopolitical disturbance that brings unpredictability to global markets. Another year where it pays to be diversified even though the market has shrugged this disturbance off faster than it did tariffs in 2025. I still think that this disturbance can have a longer lasting impact than the tariffs. Non-middle east, oil rich countries are benefiting from this disturbance, including the U.S. Not only have current oil prices risen, but the future curves of oil deliverable in the future continues to rise. This points to higher profits for these countries and companies now and in the future. When this conflict broke out, I did an exercise of examining how much oil exposure our portfolios have. I drew comfort in knowing that it was sizable.  

While this is all that the market currently cares about, the larger trends appear to be intact just on a pause – international markets growing for the first time in recent memory; a push for the dollar to depreciate against other currencies; fiscal spending on the rise globally;  and lastly, non-restrictive monetary policy. For now, I am comfortable to sit on my hands and do nothing waiting on things to either resolve, settle down, or trends to resume. I will continue to pay attention to all of the global happenings, but in many ways, this is a market where you don’t want to get caught up in the headlines and do something you could regret. 

DISCLOSURES:

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Longview Financial Advisors, Inc. [“Longview Financial Advisors”]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Longview Financial Advisors. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Longview Financial Advisors is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.