Macro Minute: Week of March 16, 2026

I have written a couple of things that I have decided to scrap. I was writing about markets and the conflict with Iran. Not that I don’t believe in what I wrote, just the situation is highly uncertain and rife with misinformation. Everyone has a take and a spin on either what is happening, what is going to happen, or the fall out going forward. I don’t want to be another voice in the cacophony of noise. What I would rather do is discuss how I think and handle uncertainty within my investment framework. 

To begin I have the belief that no one truly knows the future, and even if you do, it’s not always clear that knowing what will happen means you will profit in the markets for that foreknowledge. This is not like Biff in Back to the Future where he brought back a sports almanac and won in betting. Markets are not binary. They are multifaceted complex systems that have wide ranging possibilities and outcomes. I have observed many times where an economic data point is released, and the market does the opposite of what a logical person would think would happen.  

Then how is someone to invest in a volatile and uncertain world?  Start with an acknowledgement that the future is unknowable; look for investments that can profit from diverse outcomes. Then, decide if you believe that human ingenuity overcomes problems given enough time. If yes, invest for more economic growth with pro-growth holdings; if no, invest in more safe assets. The last thing I would suggest is to study market history. When you do this, you realize that the world has been through some very tumultuous times before and that markets have continued to go higher over time. Also, acknowledge that you don’t have to know the outcome of events to be able to invest. Getting accustomed to uncertainty is part of investing. It is unlike many disciplines where you don’t have to know all the facts to have the right outcome. As a final reminder, if you are positioned well in your portfolio construction, you can look at volatility and uncertainty as opportunities instead of obstacles. 

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