Macro Minute: Week of February 2, 2026

Today, I want to talk about the opposite of risk, luck. In investing, we talk a lot about what could go wrong. There is a good reason for this. That is because we feel loss twice as much as we feel gain. This is called loss aversion. Many times, we don’t put ourselves out there and take as much risk as we should because we are afraid of feeling the loss. The opportunity that we miss is the chance to get lucky. In life good things happen. If we are focused too acutely on what can go wrong, we miss the opportunity to have a lucky outcome.  

In building a portfolio, you must consider that yes, a holding may go down, but it may also go up. We cannot focus only on the negative possible outcomes. We must consider that things may go well. If they do, you need to be able to benefit from that positive outcome. The goal is having a portfolio that can benefit from positive outcomes while not losing as much during a negative outcome. 

Remember that things can go right, and we need to position ourselves to be able to get lucky when they do. 

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