Macro Minute: Week of November 3, 2025

Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing at all. In investing the thing that usually pays you the most is to just sit on your investments and be patient. Buy a diversified portfolio and add to it over time. Rebalance infrequently. It is counter to most other endeavors in life. With many things in life, the greater the effort the greater the results. In investing, the more you do many times you decrease your returns. Market dynamics these days make it incredibly difficult to have any edge in short-term trades. With systematic, algorithmic traders and pod shop hedge funds trading incremental data, short term trading is incredibly crowded and difficult. There is a reason I prescribe to always own beta (take the risk of the market) and a long-term perspective.  

Let’s zoom out a bit on the current environment. Globally we have had central bank easing. We have not entered a recession. Fiscally, governments are expanding. In finance we lump this mix into the inflationary boom quadrant.

I’ve highlighted many concerns that could cause market concerns. All that weakness is being overwhelmed by the fiscal spending impulse. This leads me to be in the camp that the Federal Reserve will have a hard time to get inflation meaningfully below its 2% target for any significant time.

I feel the need to address the U.S. government shutdown situation. First from an investors point of view. This is a short-term problem that does add a negative economic shock, but it will be looked through for the most part. The larger issue is the social impact. The lack of government assistance to the parts of the populace that rely on it will create an outcry that will resolve the political impasse. The blame game from a two-party political system is frustrating and even deadly if you are a recipient of the government funding for critical needs. So, the longer this drags on, it goes from an annoyance to a societal crisis. I have already seen personal businesses making efforts to alleviate as much of this need as possible. Longview is doing a food drive for the Food Bank of North Alabama. I have seen a local bakery that is going to provide birthday cakes for kid’s birthdays that are on SNAP. 

Remember to have grace during this season. Lots of people are struggling even as the market and assets are increasing.  

DISCLOSURES:

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